Sunday; August 22nd, 2021 - Hello everybody! Welcome to Unusual Due Diligence, a segment that covers my general end-of-day view of unusual options caught on Unusual Whales, a powerful tool that helps you analyze the live options flow and catch large trades that have the power to move the markets. Here, we’ll do some analysis on a few trades that catch my eye and discuss the opportunities and risks amongst each, all condensed into watchlists that are best for swing trading. Some weeks I’ll do breakdowns of specific tickers, some weeks I’ll do in-depth watchlists, I always try and switch it up a bit whenever I see the opportunity. Make sure you subscribe so you can keep up with the market and improve your trading capabilities, it’s completely free! When you subscribe, you’ll get the Newsletter sent directly to your email so you never miss out on anything! There is absolutely no spam or unwanted emails, so definitely make sure to sign up! Be sure to share it with your friends and/or family, all is very much appreciated as it helps me grow and improve my reach better than any algorithm is capable of!
Remember: This is NOT financial advice and nothing I say or do should be replicated without doing proper due diligence. Please only invest whatever you are capable of and willing to lose.
Man, it feels good to be back. Over the last two weeks, I’ve been moving into a new house and haven’t had the ability to make any trades or pay close attention to the market. I finally just got my desk & computer set up, but there’s still a lot that I have to do, so it may still be a rocky couple of weeks as everything slowly comes into shape. I’ve been waiting to get back to writing & keeping up with the flow, but it might be just a little longer until things really get rolling again. However, I’ve spent the last 10+ hours doing some due diligence on a bunch of tickers you sent me through Twitter, as well as all the alerts I missed on Unusual Whales. I missed out on a lot from my previous watchlist, being away from the market this entire time, so I fixed up a new one and got close to 25 Tickers that look beautiful on the daily candlesticks. I’ll go over some of the ones that seem like they’re really about to pop off this week, as some of them look like they can be a few months out.
First on the list is $NVDA, which is currently in the process of breaking out of a bullish ascending triangle pattern when looking at the daily candlesticks. There was a false breakout to the downside, which rejected off a minor point of support within the hourly timeframes at $189.57. After rejecting, there were some massive pushes to the upside, closing above the $198.34 resistance level, upper bollinger band, and the triangle pattern all in a single candlestick. We can also see the possibility of a new uptrending channel starting to take shape, which will depend greatly on the next couple of weeks of movement. The RSI is at 60.20 which is closer to the overbought position, but there’s still room for some major pushes towards the next couple lines of resistance at both $216.97 & ~$235.32. Currently, I have two alerts placed at both the point of rejection and the highest-high of the pattern we drew out. I’m looking for a buying position if a candlestick closes above the highest high of the pattern, and I’m looking for a selling position if a candlestick closes below that previous point of rejection. If I do enter into a buying position, I’ll be exiting once the candlesticks both close below the upper bollinger band & when they make the first lower-low of the trend.
$NVDA also just reported their earnings for Q2 of 2020, coming in at $1.05 per share on revenue of $6.5 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.01 per share on revenue of $6.3 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $1.07 per share. Revenue grew 68.3% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects third-quarter revenue of $6.66 billion to $6.94 billion and gross margins of 66.5% to 67.5%, which calculates to non-GAAP earnings of $1.04 to $1.16 per share. The current consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $6.53 billion for the quarter ending October 31, 2021.
Next up on the list is $BNGO who’s been in a huge bullish pennant pattern since the end of December in 2020. We’re getting right up into the apex, so we should be expecting a breakout any day now towards the upside. I have two alerts set at both $6.00 & $4.85, which will both be strictly short-term plays until we get a pullback. Once I pull out of that short-term trade, I’ll be waiting for a confirmation or rejection of the breakout. If it does originally break to the upside, I’ll be looking for it to go all the way to our upper resistance level of $6.54 before we get that pullback. If we get a confirmation, I’m looking at a price target anywhere from $10 to $12. But, if it originally breaks to the downside, I’ll be looking for it to move down to our lower support level of $3.45 before making a pullback. Most likely, we won’t see it confirm and fall lower. However, if it does, may God help $BNGO. They’ll be demoted to a goddamn pennystock.
Coming up third is going to be $SONO with a good breakout on a bullish pennant pattern. This bad boy broke out when I was moving, but it looks like we made it just in time for the test. Here, I’m looking for a strong close above the $38.03 resistance level before continuing up towards the $41.80 level and beyond. If we get a rejection, I’ll be riding it down all the way to the $32.89 level of support, where I’m expecting some further pullback. The RSI’s looking high but it looks like there’s some room for some growth. One thing to take into account, there was some massive selling volume during the breakout, far greater than the buying volume. Hopefully, we can see the bulls begin to take over here.
As for earnings, $SONO said it expects fiscal 2021 revenue of $1.695 billion to $1.710 billion. The company's previous guidance was revenue of $1.625 billion to $1.675 billion and the current consensus revenue estimate is $1.66 billion for the year ending September 30, 2021.
Ahhhh, good ole’ $AMC. This one’s for you, Apes! This stock right here, this is who I call Daddy. Since the massive spike to $72.62 began at the end of May, it’s been in a bullish falling wedge pattern riding down & close to that apex, finally breaking out just before hitting the mark. After the breakout, we saw a good test at our $36.31 line of resistance before pulling back and barely touching our $32.56 line of support. After the love tap, we saw a good bullish bounce on Friday, paving the way for some more upwards movement in the next week. We could continue to see some consolidation in this area before our confirmation, so keep an eye on this one. The RSI has fallen all the way to only 46.73, so there’s some MASSIVE room for some growth.
There were tons of insider trade acquisitions taking place on June 3rd, which was a couple of months back but can still be relevant to this current outlook. Short interest is coming in at ~16.72% with $3.8 Billion worth of shares being shorted, which is a decrease from its original high of $5.02 Billion. Institutions currently own ~25.45% of all shares available.
Of course, this is also all that’s being reported. Are there naked shorts? That’s a good question, and I don’t have the answer, but what I do know is that this bad boy’s about to pop by the look of the chart. However, something that is very interesting is the fact that most of the bullishness is actually taking place on the bid-side, as most people who are bullish seem to be selling puts instead of placing calls. There’s less urgency to get in, so it can also mean that more people are simply buying shares rather than placing options. Keep a very, very, very close eye on this one. I’m looking for a break above $37.58 as a confirmation to the upside, and I’m looking for a break below $30.86 as a rejection to the downside. Stay patient. $AMC will pop when it feels like it. Let it prepare for its big day.
Here’s a very simple play for $ZNGA. While I was moving, there was a massive dip in the daily candlesticks from $9.73 all the way down to $7.79. Remember, candlesticks don’t like gaps in the chart. This drop created a massive gap basically all the up to where it originally was at $9.73. Once the break of the $8.29 resistance occurred, it’s showtime. As you can see, the candlesticks have been getting increasingly bullish ever since, and we can ride this bad boy all the way up to that $9.73 resistance level. There may be some pullback at times, but we should expect these candlesticks to fill the chart at some point in time, which would be where we exit. There shouldn’t be any more movements to the downside, but always have a plan if there is. For me, I’m setting S/L at -30% or I’m pulling out if the candlesticks drop below the $7.85 line of support.
$EWZ is literally a textbook channel play. Look at this, just admire it for a second. It couldn’t be more defined, more perfect. We’re currently seeing a beautiful rejection off the bottom portion of this massive channel on the daily candlesticks, we can expect to ride this out all the way until $42.02+ - simple as that. The RSI is almost oversold at 35.25, which means we have the room we need for some upside movements. Buying volume is increasing, and the candlesticks are at the bottom of the bollinger bands. The last few days, they finally closed within the lines, which could indicate a change in momentum towards the upside. If it changes direction and closes below the channel’s previous low of $33.90, I’ll be going for a short position. But if it closes above $34.80 like we’re expecting, we have nothing but tendies at the end of this rainbow.
I wrote about this one in the last Newsletter when it was consolidating at the $697.65 level of support/resistance. Since then, it seems like we got a small pullback to the edge of the pattern before rejecting and climbing back up to that resistance level of $697.65. I think we can expect some more consolidation at that level before breaking either up or down. If it breaks up, I’m looking for a close above $732.88 before taking a position, as that’s the previous high and could make another rejection at that minor resistance level. If it breaks above $732.88, I’m looking to ride this thing all the way up to $900+. If it rejects, I’m looking to take a position when candlesticks close below the $648.49 level of support, which hopefully we won’t experience. If we do, it’ll be a sad day for all of us.
On August 19th, Elon Musk attended AI Day 2021 and announced multiple developments with $TSLA, including the development of a humanoid robot dubbed the Tesla Bot. The entire event is three+ hours long, so definitely give it a watch to see some of the things Tesla’s looking to accomplish. If they actually do follow through with some of their claims, this share price will go far beyond $1,000/Share.
Alright, this one’s a little interesting. Here, it seems like we have ourselves a bullish falling wedge pattern, but we actually got a massive rejection on the initial breakout. Since the rejection, it actually hopped back into its original pattern, consolidated for a bit, and then began to break to the udownside. Currently, we have a very minuscule green candle which still closed below the pattern. The flow is looking very bearish on both the ask & bid sides, so it looks like we may be seeing a confirmation of a rejection. If this continues down to $12.13, we may see some further pullback. If it breaks $12.13 and continues down, I’ll be placing a short position with a target of ~$9.00. There’s a chance we can see a rejection at the $12.13 line of support and make another try to the upside, as the RSI is closer to the oversold position at 40.80. For me to be bullish in the short-term, I need a break of the $14.92 line of resistance. When looking at the long-term, I need a break of the $19.17 line of resistance, which is a long, long way up.
I was honestly thinking about just leaving it at that. I really sat on this for a few minutes, but I think I should put at the least a slight effort into this one. As you can see, right off the bat, we’re getting a good falling wedge pattern. Sadly, it’s bullish, which is the only reason I’m actually putting in the effort on this. However, just because the pattern itself is bullish does not mean that will be how the market performs. There are many factors that can play into this, and as you can see, the flow is showing bearishness across the board. Everybody’s ready to see Robinhood fail after what they did with $AMC & $GME, including myself. However, I will not let my emotions take over my trading. If it breaks to the upside, I’m looking for some pullback followed by a confirmation or rejection. At the confirmation is when I’ll be entering into a bullish position. When and where will that confirmation take place? Well, this stock’s literally been active for 17 candlesticks, so who the fuck knows. If there is a break to the downside though, I’ll be looking for something very similar and entering off a confirmation. Let me tell you, if I’m bullish, I’ll only be doing like a few contracts. But if I’m bearish, pffft. I’m going big with the volume. Smiles with the teeth showing and all.
We’re down to the last three, and for this one, we’re looking at $V. These candlesticks have been in another bullish falling wedge pattern, which we seem to be seeing a lot of right now. Why are all these patterns falling wedges? I demand more diversity in this market. However, it is a pattern and we must show nit some respect. So, we see here that it’s getting damn near close to the apex, so we really should be expecting that initial breakout any day now. I could see it dropping down towards the $228.33 level of support, consolidating, and then breaking to the upside towards the $234.82 level of resistance. This could be a good time for a short-term position, but we’ll probably see a test at the $234.82 resistance level. If it breaks that to the upside, I’ll be looking for a long-term position all the way up to $250+. If it initially breaks to the downside, we can probably expect the same thing with consolidation at the $221.27 level of support before receiving some pullback. If it breaks below $221.27, I’ll be looking for a long-term short position with a target of $206.31. The flow is looking bullish and the RSI is closer to the oversold position at 42.12, so I think we can expect this to be a bullish play.
Here’s another textbook channel play on the ticker $CLF. Currently, we’re at the very bottom of the channel, bouncing perfectly on our line and slightly consolidating. Previously, there was a break to the downside but we saw a rejection at the $19.76 line of support before returning to the ongoing pattern and continuing its momentum to the upside. We don’t see any green candles currently, so there’s a chance it can break and test the new line of support at $21.94. If it does break below $21.94, we’ll be looking for a short-term short position with a goal of the $19.76 line of support that had that rejection. If it breaks further than $19.76, we’ll be looking at a long-term short position of ~$15.06 or below. However, I’m feeling bullish and I’m expecting this to continue its trend in the channel to the upside with a goal of ~$27.44. The flow is looking massively bullish and the RSI is showing room for some more movements to the upside. I’d like to see a bullish engulfing candle sometime soon or a break of the $23.58 resistance level before entering into a long-term bullish position. If it does break, we’ll be holding our bags all the way up to the top.
For the very last ticker, we have $AMAT who’s breaking out of the neutral ascending triangle pattern. Currently, it’s consolidated at the $124.70 level of support which seems to be funneling out within the shorter timeframes. We’ll be looking for a break below that level of support before entering into a short position with a target of $111.73 at that major level of support. There, we’ll most-likely see a pullback or some strong consolidation before either rejecting or confirming and falling further. If it does fall further, it’ll be a very sad time for $AMAT. However, we can also see a rejection in the next few days and it could fall back into its current pattern or break to the upside. If so, we’ll need it to break the pattern’s high of $146.00 before entering into any long-term bullish positions.
This can go multiple ways, as this stock also has the bid-side bullish while the ask-side is bearish. Since this pattern is neutral, we really have to pay close attention to how this moves in the next few days. Currently, the RSI is closer to the oversold position at 40.19, so if we do see a bearish play form, I don’t believe we’ll see a break below $111.73.
Alright, Apes! That is all for today! I hope you enjoyed this segment of Unusual Due Diligence, please be sure to stick around for more coming soon! Remember, set your stop-losses and take profit when profit is visible! If you do play these tickers, play them as safe as possible and enter at the best possible moment you’re given. Patience is key, don’t rush into a trade if you miss it. The market has thousands of plays every single day, these are only a few of them.
I’m constantly looking for ways to improve my segments and make sure I’m giving out the most beneficial information possible. Please leave a comment and let me know how I can improve! I’d love to hear of different types of Analytics you’d like to see on a daily basis, things I’m missing, or even things that I should take out. Thank you, please let me know!
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